You can take the survey here. But before you do that, let's review the first-round of results (ie, responses collected from 2 December 2009 through 8 January 2010). Events since then may have made some of the following scenarios more or less likely. You tell me.
The scenarios -- with my updated comments included in brackets  -- that are included in the survey are as follows (see the chart afterward for the first-round results):
- New follow-on biologics legislation in the U.S. will increase competition from generic equivalents and eventually decrease brand profits. [I think the legislation is still bogged down and when finalized may not have much impact within the time frame specified.]
- Broadcast (ie, TV) Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) drug promotion will be banned or sharply curtailed by law in the U.S. [This may have been a big issue back in the day, but it doesn't seem to be center stage right now.]
- The European Union will finally allow Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) advertising to its citizens. [The European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, recently ruled that pharma companies would not be allowed to disseminate information about drugs and their indications beyond a narrow set of circumstances. For the details, see, "In Rejecting Proposal, EU Dashes Drugmakers’ Hopes of Having a Voice"]
- Internet-based drug promotion (including search engine marketing) will overtake TV-based DTC in the U.S. in terms of dollars spent. [There's still time for this to happen. I'm guessing that right now only about 5% (maybe 10% if you include search advertising) of pharma's DTC advertising budget is spent on Internet advertising whereas TV accounts for over 50% of the budget. See "Double Dip in DTC Spending Plus 33% Drop in Internet Display Ad Spending!"]
- Due to decreasing effectiveness of traditional physician detailing and rise of non-personal detailing, the role of traditional sales representative will become obsolete. [I'm surprised that over 50% of respondents think this is likely to happen before 2020 (see chart below). Perhaps a sign is the recent closing of Pharmaceutical Representative Magazine (see here). Also read this article: "Consequences of eDetailing Technology".]
- New healthcare reform legislation will dramatically increase the sales of drugs in the U.S.
- Extensive outcomes data available to payers and comparative effectiveness research will force the industry much further down the path of pay-for-performance (ie, adopt a more flexible approach to pricing). [For background in this, read the article "A Case for Supporting Comparative Effectiveness Research".]
- Patients will become even more influential and empowered in making healthcare decisions as they are forced to pay a larger share of costs and/or have access to health information from a variety of sources. [For more background on this, read the article "The Empowered Patient: What It Means for Pharma Marketers".]
- Despite lack of innovative new drugs and/or generic competition, sales of brand drugs worldwide will show a sharp increase due to increased demand in emerging markets (eg, China). [See the following articles: "Getting Market Research Right in Emerging Markets", "Getting Market Research Right in the Middle East", and "Getting Market Research Right in India & China".]
- More efficient targeting of drugs and marketing to specific patient populations will greatly increase effectiveness and decrease side effects of drugs. [See, for example, "New Big Pharma Economies of Scale: Less Patients Needed to Reach Blockbuster Sales". At least one targeted therapy (I can't recall which), however, recently failed and that may cast a shadow on progress in this area.]
- Social media marketing will become a significant part (>10%) of the pharmaceutical marketing mix. [Hmmm... A lot of people seem to believe this is likely (see chart), but FDA's delay in issuing guidance may have dampened the outlook for pharma use of social media.]
- The next BIG opportunity for targeted marketing to patients and physicians is mobile apps on "smart phones." [To prepare for this, I recommend you read the article "Everything You Need to Know About Mobile Platforms". Take the survey and you will get a discount code that allows you to get this at no charge.]
- Pharmaceutical and biotech companies will continue to increase their outsourcing of clinical trials and related drug development. Outsourcing will account for more than 50% of R&D spending by 2019.