I have tackled the estimated $800 million drug develop cost gorilla before and garnered a lot of comments from readers, including Dr. Joseph DiMasi, whose team at Tufts came up with that number way back in 2003 (for more on that, read "Tufts Hangs Tough on Opportunity Cost Analysis").
It's about time CSDD threw out the old number and came up with a new, much larger number! But Tufts is not the only academics who have tackled the problem. As I reported in 2011, the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSEPS) cam sup with quite a different - much lower! - estimate of $59 million (see "A New Estimate of Drug Development Cost") and the Office of Health Economics (OHE) at the University College London estimated the cost to be $1.5 billion in 2013 (see here).
These various historic estimates are summarized in the following chart:
|Click on chart for an enlarged view.|
You'll never guess who said the oft-cited 2003 Tufts estimate was "one of the great myths of the industry".