Friday, December 22, 2006

The Next Blockbuster - You Decide!

CNN Money reports that "After a rough couple of years dealing with patent expirations and the often frustrating hunt for new products, drug industry executives would love nothing better than an oracle to predict what products in their labs will become the big blockbuster drugs over the next few years." (See "Big Pharma's drug wish list for 2007").

I'd like to try a "wisdom of the crowd" experiment and see if readers of this blog may be the oracle sought by the industry. So, here are the contenders for blockbusters and a bit of information about them. You add your own information and then vote on which ones you think will achieve blockbuster ($1 billion or more in yearly sales) status over the next few years.
  • Januvia (Merck) - a recently approved "first-in-class" diabetes drug (enhances the body's ability to produce its own insulin).
  • Galvus (Novartis) - an experimental diabetes drug, will compete with Januvia
  • MK-0524A (Merck) - experimental drug being tested for its ability to increase HDL (similar to Pfizer's ill-fated torcetrapib)
  • Arcoxia (Merck) - experimental anti-inflammatory pain killer drug for arthritis. Available outside US, may be approved next year by FDA.
  • Acomplia (Sanofi-Aventis) - generally considered an anti-obesity drug. Available overseas, trying to get approved by the FDA in the US.
So, which of these drugs do you think will become a blockbuster in the next few years. Please take the following poll -- don't cheat and view the results before voting!

Which will be a blockbuster? (choose one or more)

1 comment:

  1. This is a great topical on your blog- Mr. John, and the “wisdom of the crowd’ a Gallup poll like thing is a great concept.

    I have voted for Galvus Novartis. The reasoning is based on the following:

    1) Company profile – no doubt Merck is a large and good company, but go by the history of facts too. They went for overkill on Rofecoxib, and burnt their fingers badly. This indicated the company culture and culture cannot be changed easily. The same goes for Pfizer and its famed arrogance. Novartis on the other hand is scientific and is driven by a sense of soberness.
    2) Diabetes is the next ‘epidemic’. For example, India is home to the largest diabetic population in the world, beating even China. Obesity is no doubt a health challenge, but not a ‘drug oriented challenge’; it is more of a lifestyle and exercise related thing.

    So my bet is on Galvus.

    A great blog post – my compliments once again. ( - Sunil S Chiplunkar


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